Let the bets begin. Here’s my projections for the electoral map
With a lot of the state polls tightening, the Bradley effect, the reverse-Bradley effect, the republican 72 hour blitz, voter turn out suppression, and machine malfunctions, here’s my gut take.
There will not be an Obama landslide victor nor a McCain upset.
Obama’s definitely on the offense, but I don’t think they’ll flip many of those red states. What it does do is it forces McCain to spread resources towards defense and away from key battleground states.
As exciting as it would be, and maybe I just don’t want to get my hopes up, even though Obama’s storming into McCain’s home state of Arizona, and new south states like Georgia, I’m leaving them in McCain’s column.
Polls seem to be shifting in McCain’s direction in huge battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Ohio, but I say it’s too little too late.
With Florida’s extended voting early voting hours, and what’s happened to them in the past elections, I can’t see democrats and independents sitting this one out.
My take is North Carolina might be the tightest races of election night, and that one is trending Obama.
My final tally, Obama takes it by 353 to McCain 185.
I also don’t think the democrats will get the 60-seat filibuster proof senate, but they’ll come real close.
Keep in mind a lot can still happen in the coming days. I can’t believe there can possibly still be any undecided voters after two years of campaigning with heavy media coverage. I do think that much of the youth vote might not be captured in the current polls, and many independents could swing back to republican roots do to cultural concerns.
* I just saw on the news that 15% of Canadians were surveyed to be willing to forfeit their own vote in the Canadian elections to vote for Obama.
** I would love to play a game of Risk with Obama’s campaign strategists Plouffe and Axelord just to see how badly they could smoke me.
*** What a mess the next president will be inheriting.
What do you think? Come up with your own election projections here.